War in Ukraine My thoughts 1 March 2022

2019 I predicted that Putin will initiate war in order to stay in power after 2024.

Quote from my blog:

“Leaders who were long in power, sooner or later lose their connection with reality and believe in the exclusivity of their decisions. Solving a problem in Ukraine or creating a new tension that would allow Putin to declare a state of emergency, would give a legal opportunity to extend his stay in power for an unidefinite period, and in the event of a success, guarantee immunity for the rest of his life, is the most likely option. The question is just where and when the tension will be created? The military reform will end in 2020, it means the army has been modernized and prepared. The conflict must be short and victorious. War in Ukraine was an exercise what didn’t went as planned. Does Putin makes the next move in 2021 or 2022, important is that no one will be able afterword’s to associate event with an attempt to stay in power? This will be the most probable course of action from my mind.”

It all happened. It was well-chosen moment when Putin started his actions. Western world is mostly struggling with his own challenges, there is lots of tensions because of COVID crisis, EU made very violent turn toward green energy, what has coursed large energy crisis, at least among new EU members, then continues economical refugees’ pressure what is coming from Asian and African states. That keeps most of the politicians in EU more busy, then anything else, because internal politics is more influential then foreign relations. Reacting on internal issues is always more influential in order to be re-elected. From my own experience I can tell that medals are not awarded where they are earned, but there where they are delivered. 

Additionally, if we look what has happened and will happen in the nearest future. First Germany received new chancellor (here I what to emphasis that Putin never respected Angela Merkel, because he has special unrespectful relationship toward women, and additionally he has his own 250 000 EURO pet in Germany, useful idiot Gerhard Schröder), France will have presidential election on 10 April, 08 November US will have his congress election. It’s the perfect moment chosen.

If we are talking about information war then we can conclude this is done by the book. 2013 in his article in Military magazine chief of Russian General Staff General Gerasimov[1] revealed that Information Operations (IO) is initiated from Russian side already before the crisis, and that what Russians has done. They have developed IO capabilities and have been active in western information space since 2007, when Russia restarted their nuclear bombers flights over the Arctics toward Washington. That was their message, to be taken seriously. Then 2008 happened invasion to Georgia, then 2014 Crimea. What was our reaction???

IO aspects have been exercised during the preparatory and initiation phase continuously especially form Russian side.

Key Leader Engagements - was used in order to calm western leaders - useful idiots where initiated.

Deception was conducted under the military exercises when all necessary forces were collected to the Ukrainian border.

Computer Network Operations -all our countries can assure that assault to their computer network has increased, Russian government sites are all down taken by our hackers.

Electronical Warfare - Similarly to Georgian war most of the mobile network antennas still are left up.  It shows that Russian military signal network is still very poor. Same time this mobile network is good source for intelligence information

PSYOPS – is ongoing from both sides. Videos about war prisoners are shown from both sides.

Operational security- is in use. Number of casualties for example Ukraine is revealing only civilian casualties. Russian are denying any casualties at all.

Presence Posture Profile - initial instruction to Russian troops was not to kill civilians. Now it’s changed.

Physical destruction- against all airports was clear messages they want to have superiority in the air.

During today’s war in Ukraine. I would say that Putin is using effectively Nazi narrative, because there is very little good things has happened in Russia. Russian vodka, balalaika, Russian ballet are things what we know, what all Russians are proud of is the victory in II WW. Victory over Nazis, so if you want to describe something very bad, label it with Nazi name and every simple Russian will understand this is bad.

Deeds speak louder than words. Fact is that Russia has one of the largest armies in the world. Dose Ukraine has a chance to withstand it? Questionable, if he will be left alone.

Dose sanctions will help Ukraine. NO, if they will stay as they are wright now. Look what happened with Chechenia, lots of statements and now there is warlord loyal to Russia ruling. We are celebrating closure of Nord Stream 2, pipeline what even is not in use, nobody talks about Nord Stream 1.  25% of oil and 45% of Gaz, Europe is still buying form Russia!!! It is hypocratic, we are building our own way to loose Ukraine.

West has to realize that Cold war was built with their own hand when they were supporting economically Soviet Union during II WW. USSR would never survived without US land lease machinery, weapons, ammunition, food and raw materials. And Soviet Union lost the Cold war not because of military, but because of economical pressure. West is more attractive than Socialist order.

Same time when West had a better economy, what all Soviet block admired and wanted to achieve, there was no plan to help enlighten people. There was only old tradition to get benefit. Thanks to the Putin propaganda Russian people are feeling mistreated not having wealth what they expected after collapse of USSR and now Putin with help of those feelings wants to re-establish Russian "lost power".

Countries who have withstand against Russia, like Poland, Finland are respected, but countries who surrender silently in 1940 like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are always obliged to defend their independence against Russia with the weapon.

What will happen tomorrow. Of course, now Putin will bring to fight his main forces, and there will be lots of civilian casualties. Lukashenko will join attack against Ukraine. War will be bloody and long because Ukrainians will not surrender easily. There will be many refugees coming to Europe.

This war will be test for the democracy and western settlement of economy. If Ukraine will fall, we will have new world order soon, with more dictators. Most probably one of the phases of this war will be finished for 07 October, when Putin will celebrate his 70 Anniversary.

In Russia the soldiers mothers will start to protest when casualties number will reach 30 thousand Russian boys. Maybe this will change the destiny of war.

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[1] Gerasimov was serving 1987- 1994 in Estonia. Last post was the commander of 144 moto rifle infantry division.