Putins next 5 year plan

In March of last year, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, continued his tour as the president of Russia, on 7 October becoming 67 years old man, he has been in power for a total of 19 years, passing one of the most famous predecessors, Leonid Brezhnev. Only Joseph Stalin and partly Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko, can be considered a more successful Russian dictator.

According to the law, the president of Russia will change in 2024 when Putin is 71 years old. His predecessors, Stalin and Brezhnev, did not transfer their jobs to the successor, they died on the post, Stalin 74 and Brezhnev at the age of 76 years.

It is early to speculate on what will happen in 2024, but since Putin is preparing for this deadline, and as we know he is long-term planner and has strategic patience, assumptions can be made already today. Particularly in a situation where the western political-scientists competence on the direction to Russian is limited and our Baltic knowledge about occupation and separation from the Eastern Bloc is vanishing from memories.

The situation in Russia is always interesting, certainly there will be an impact to the future from the parliament, or so called Duma elections in Russia on 2020, where the majority of the votes will be collected by the United Russia. Dependence on the central powers and the good Czar who does not really know what is happening in the provinces is leading the lowest classes in Russia.

Putin has proficiently exploited the wealth of the Russian state natural resources, by selling to the West, to the East, and to the South he has managed to collect his personal wealth. Putin is not greedy, he also distributes revenue to subordinates and shares profit with the people. The salaries of civil servants, especially military personnel, social benefits in case of birth of a child, pensions for special merit, etc. are tools that create a loyal civil society.

Putin is also innovative. In 2020, another phase of the modernization of the army will be completed. This gave opportunity to re-establish power for giant military industry that suffered long time after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Modernization of old tanks helped to restore production, production means jobs for people and salary. The war with Ukraine provides an opportunity to sign off the old machines and take new into use.

As former St. Petersburg hooligan, Putin knows that you can only raise your position by fighting with the biggest. Selecting the US as an enemy and comparing Russia with him are methods that create emotions, but do not reflect reality. The intervention of the Syrian war showed Putin's ambitions, an opportunity to renew the army, perhaps raised someone's self-consciousness, and that was all. Just as it was in 2007, when Putin launched his obsolete nuclear bombers' flights over the Arctic, with direction to USA. It costs more than brings profit, maybe the attempt to scare Americans rises some Russian self-esteem.

The powerful and well-funded propaganda machine is influencing inhabitants of United States, Ukraine, the European Union, especially  Baltic States. The result is a situation where Americans are more hated in Russia than they were during the Cold War.
Influencing action are making Putin more acceptable to the Western world, until to the next brawl, as it has been the case with the Georgian war, conquering Crimea, poisoning former agents, organizing cyber attacks or influencing election.
It is customary for Putin occasionally cope with something called pence peeing. At first, it's warm and funny, then becomes cold, inconvenient and followed by the parents annoyance.

Before 2024, what are Putin's choices? There are quite a few of them.

1. Just go retirement and watch what will happen.

2. Let yourself be declared a Czar and rule for the rest of life, as Nursultan Nazarbayev or Alexander Lukashenko.

3. Look for a young and strong successor who will secure his immunity, such as Ramzan Kadyrov.

4. Choose an old track, choose a successor, shorter and younger than Putin, today 53-year-old Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev. Let him rule for 6 years and then decide.

5. Initiate a close border conflict (blame of cause goes to opponent) and extend your term for an indefinite period.

Certainly, the most unpredictable of these choices are the people and their behavior, although it is worth remembering that the much-suffering Russian people are used to accept everything. Most would certainly like Medvedev to become a president again, it has already been experienced and the result is known.
For Putin would be the most dangerous option to go to retirement, which would give to his opponents the chance to revenge. This choice is certainly not supported by the power authorities, who do not like the vague future. Oligarchs would definitely like to preserve the status quo because they already know whom to pay and how much.

The emergence of a new monarchy in history would be a precedent for which it is difficult to foresee a common position, but as the world has agreed with Lukashenko and with Nazarbayev, also Czar Putin will be accepted. Some movement in this direction, anyway, are taking place in Russia, for example, the creation of a guard or the erection of monuments. This is secret dreams of every narcissistic leader.

Dictators usually find it difficult to allow someone to be as strong as they are, so it's hard to believe that Putin allows someone to become strongly powered successor. His preference is to get someone weak, someone who can be easily leaded, like Medvedev, although it will be hard to Putin to give power away, and this time not for 4, but even for 6 years.

Those who were long in power, sooner or later lose their connection with reality and believe in the exclusivity of their decisions. Solving a problem in Ukraine or creating a new tension that would allow Putin to declare a state of emergency, would give a legal opportunity to extend his stay in power for an indefinite period, and in the event of a success, guarantee immunity for the rest of his life, is the most likely option. The question is just where and when the tension will be created? The military reform will end in 2020, it means the army has been modernized and prepared. The conflict must be short and victorious. War in Ukraine was an exercise what didn’t went as planned. Does Putin makes the next move in 2021 or 2022, important is that no one will be able afterwords to associate event with an attempt to stay in power?
This will be the most probable course of action from my mind.

Let’s see, I would like to hope that we will get after 2024 Dmitry Medvedev as next Russian president.